Memo
Investment Memo
Meridian Analytics, Inc. (MRDN) — FY2021–FY2025 review and valuation summary.
Illustrative data for a fictional company — see Methodology.
Executive Summary
Meridian Analytics, Inc. grew revenue at a 16.0% CAGR and EBITDA at a 26.6% CAGR from FY2021 to FY2025, with EBITDA margin expanding from 18.0% to 25.5%. The base-case DCF implies an enterprise value of $2,949.5M and $71.89 per share; the downside-to-upside scenario range is $32.76 to $121.19 per share. The most recent fiscal year shows a moderation in cash conversion alongside a working-capital build, which is the primary item flagged for further diligence below. This memo presents valuation outputs and risk findings only — it does not make a buy, sell, or hold recommendation.
Business Overview
Meridian Analytics develops a subscription analytics and workflow platform used by mid-market and enterprise operations, finance, and supply-chain teams to consolidate reporting and forecasting. Revenue is substantially subscription-based (ARR), supplemented by implementation and professional services.
Historical Financial Performance
Revenue CAGR
16.0%
EBITDA CAGR
26.6%
FY2025 EBITDA Margin
25.5%
CFO / Net Income (latest)
1.12x
Accounting / Forensic Review
The Beneish M-Score for FY2025 is -2.48, and the Altman Z'-Score is 3.07 (Safe zone). Both are treated as screening indicators requiring further investigation, not conclusions. Full component detail is on the Forensic page.
DCF Assumptions
The base-case forward assumptions behind the valuation below — editable interactively on the DCF page.
| Forecast Period | 5 years |
| Revenue Growth (annual) | 15.0% |
| EBITDA Margin | 28.0% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| Capex % of Revenue | 5.0% |
| WACC | 10.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% |
Valuation
- Enterprise Value
- $2,949.5M
- Equity Value
- $3,019.5M
- Implied Value / Share
- $71.89
- WACC / Terminal Growth
- 10.0% / 3.0%
Scenario Analysis
| Scenario | Enterprise Value | Equity Value | Value / Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | $1,306.0M | $1,376.0M | $32.76 |
| Base | $2,949.5M | $3,019.5M | $71.89 |
| Upside | $5,020.2M | $5,090.2M | $121.19 |
Key Risks
- Growth moderation identified. — Revenue growth slowed from 17.9% (FY2024) to 15.3% (FY2025).
- Capital expenditure intensity has risen. — Capex / Revenue increased from 5.0% to 5.3%.
Key Diligence Questions
- What drove the deceleration in revenue growth in the most recent fiscal year, and is it expected to persist?
- What is driving the increase in net working capital, and are there any changes in revenue recognition, billing terms, or customer collections?
- Is the increase in capex intensity temporary/growth-related, or a new structural run-rate?
- What WACC and terminal-growth assumptions would the counterparty defend, and how sensitive is their own view to those inputs?
- Can management walk through the metrics behind the FY2025 commentary in more detail?
Open Questions & Areas for Further Investigation
- Customer concentration and contract-level ARR detail.
- Detailed AR aging schedule behind the DSO / cash-conversion trend.
- Debt covenant terms and maturity schedule.
- Segment-level margin detail behind the consolidated EBITDA margin trend.
Limitations
- All company data is illustrative/fictional, not real filings — see the Methodology page and DATA_SOURCES.md.
- DCF forecast assumptions are held flat across the forecast window rather than ramped year by year.
- Beneish M-Score and Altman Z'-Score are statistical screening indicators, not conclusions or proof of any finding.
- No real market price exists for this illustrative company, so equity value cannot be benchmarked against a trading price.